国家神经系统疾病临床医学研究中心数据管理与共享系统
Data Management And Sharing System of China National Clinical Research Center for Neurological Diseases
The temporal distribution of new H7N9 avian influenza infections based on laboratory-confirmed cases in Mainland China, 2013-2017
第一作者：Guo Zuiyuan
通讯作者：Wang Xiuhong
基本信息
- 负责人：Guo Zuiyuan
- 数据来源： OTHERS
- 论文编号：OTHERS20190648
- 发表时间：2018-03-06
2018-03-06
已发表文章
主要研究背景及目的
方法
The incubation period, interval from onset to laboratory confirmation, and confirmation time for all laboratory-confirmed cases of H7N9 avian influenza in Mainland China, occurring between January 2013 and June 2017, were used as the statistical data. Stochastic processes theory and maximum likelihood were used to calculate the growth rate of new infections. Time-series analysis was then performed to assess correlations between the time series of new infections and new laboratory-confirmed cases.
结论
The temporal distribution characteristics of new infections and new laboratory-confirmed cases were similar and strongly correlated.
主要结果
The rate of new infections showed significant seasonal fluctuation. Laboratory confirmation was delayed by a period of time longer than that of the infection (average delay, 13 days; standard deviation, 6.8 days). At the lags of -7.5 and -15 days, respectively, the time-series of new infections and new confirmed cases were significantly correlated; the cross correlation coefficients (CCFs) were 0.61 and 0.16, respectively.