国家神经系统疾病临床医学研究中心数据管理与共享系统
Data Management And Sharing System of China National Clinical Research Center for Neurological Diseases
2019-02-13
已发表文章
主要研究背景及目的
方法
The ECAS-PS was developed based on the Renqiu Stroke Screening Study (RSSS), in which eligible participants were randomly divided into derivation (60%) and validation (40%) cohorts. ECAS at baseline and follow-up was diagosed by carotid duplex ultrasound according to the published criteria. ECAS progression was defined as an increase in ECAS to≥50% for those with a baseline of <50% or as an increase to a higher category of stenosis if the baseline stenosis was ≥50%. Independent predictors of ECAS progression were obtained using multivariable logistic regression. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test were used to assess model discrimination and calibration.
结论
The ECAS progression score is a valid model for predicting the risk of ECAS progression. Further validation of the ECAS-PS in different populations and larger samples is warranted.
主要结果
A total of 4111 participants were included and the mean age was 64.3. A total number of 29 (0.7%), 24 (0.6%) and 48 (1.2%) patients progressed during 2-year follow-up for left, right and bilateral (either left or right) carotid artery, respectively. The ECAS-PS was developed from a set of predictors of ECAS progression. The ECAS-PS demonstrated good discrimination in both the derivation and validation cohorts (AUROC range: 0.824-0.917). The Hosmer-Lemeshow tests of ECAS progression score were not significant in the derivation and validation cohorts (all P > 0.05).