Data Management And Sharing System of China National Clinical Research Center for Neurological Diseases
A Validation of the Essen Stroke Risk Score in Outpatients with Ischemic Stroke
First author：Pan Chen,Yi Liu
Corresponding author：Yongjun Wang,Aoshuang Yan
essential_information
- Person in charge：Pan Chen,Yi Liu
- Data Sources： ROOTS
- Number of papers：ROOTS20190024
- Published time：2016-06-08
2016-06-08
Published articles
Journal：Journal of Stroke and Cerebrovascular Diseases
Publication type: Original Contributions
IF(IF): 2.5
PMID: 27289184 Link To Pubmed Full text Download
Background And Purpose
Little is known about the predictive accuracy of the Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) for Chinese stroke outpatients. Our goal was to perform an external validation of the ESRS using a large multicenter cohort of outpatients with ischemic stroke (IS).
Method
We estimated the 1-year cumulative event rates for both recurrent stroke and combined vascular events for patients in different ESRS categories using data from a prospective cohort of 3316 outpatients with IS admitted to 18 hospitals in China. In addition, we evaluated the predictive accuracy of the ESRS for both recurrent stroke and combined vascular events using C statistic.
Conclusion
Among the Chinese outpatients with IS, the ESRS was able to stratify the risk of both recurrent stroke and combined vascular events equally well. A prediction model suitable for Chinese IS populations is needed.
Main results
In the nonatrial fibrillation IS outpatients, the cumulative 1-year event rate was 2.47% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.97%-3.06%) for recurrent stroke and 4.32% (95% CI, 3.65%-5.06%) for combined vascular events. The event rates were significantly higher in patients in higher ESRS categories. The ESRS had a predictive accuracy of 0.63 (0.57-0.69) for recurrent stroke and 0.63 (0.58-0.68) for combined vascular events.