国家神经系统疾病临床医学研究中心数据管理与共享系统
Data Management And Sharing System of China National Clinical Research Center for Neurological Diseases
A Validation of the Essen Stroke Risk Score in Outpatients with Ischemic Stroke
第一作者：Pan Chen,Yi Liu
基本信息
- 负责人：Pan Chen,Yi Liu
- 数据来源： ROOTS
- 论文编号：ROOTS20190024
- 发表时间：2016-06-08
2016-06-08
已发表文章
发表杂志：Journal of Stroke and Cerebrovascular Diseases
发表类型: Original Contributions
影响因子(IF): 2.5
PMID: 27289184 Pubmed原文链接 全文下载
主要研究背景及目的
Little is known about the predictive accuracy of the Essen Stroke Risk Score (ESRS) for Chinese stroke outpatients. Our goal was to perform an external validation of the ESRS using a large multicenter cohort of outpatients with ischemic stroke (IS).
方法
We estimated the 1-year cumulative event rates for both recurrent stroke and combined vascular events for patients in different ESRS categories using data from a prospective cohort of 3316 outpatients with IS admitted to 18 hospitals in China. In addition, we evaluated the predictive accuracy of the ESRS for both recurrent stroke and combined vascular events using C statistic.
结论
Among the Chinese outpatients with IS, the ESRS was able to stratify the risk of both recurrent stroke and combined vascular events equally well. A prediction model suitable for Chinese IS populations is needed.
主要结果
In the nonatrial fibrillation IS outpatients, the cumulative 1-year event rate was 2.47% (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.97%-3.06%) for recurrent stroke and 4.32% (95% CI, 3.65%-5.06%) for combined vascular events. The event rates were significantly higher in patients in higher ESRS categories. The ESRS had a predictive accuracy of 0.63 (0.57-0.69) for recurrent stroke and 0.63 (0.58-0.68) for combined vascular events.